Imibare leta y’u Rwanda itangaza ku bukungu bwayo yerekana ko umusaruro urushaho kwiyongera buri mwaka. Ibyo ndetse bituma hari bamwe bashima cyane ubutegetsi bwa Pawulo Kagame, bakanabwogeza mu rugaga rw’amahanga, ngo burimo guhashya ubukene. Ndetse bamwe bagashaka kubiheraho bavuga ko igitugu kiri mu Rwanda ntacyo gitwaye kuko gituma ubukungu bwiyongera. Nk’uko Yozefu Ngarambe, impuguke mu by’ubukungu abivuga, ngo iriya mibare leta y’u Rwanda itangaza ku bukungu bwayo ishingiye ku binyoma. Byongeye kandi ngo ubusumbane mu Banyarwanda buragenda bukataza ku buryo n’ubukungu buhari buba ari umwihariko w’abantu bake, abaturage benshi bakaba bafite ikibazo cy’ubukene burushaho kwiyongera. Ibi Ngarambe yabivuze muri bya biganiro byateguriwe kwibuka isabukuru y’imyaka 13 Seth Sendashonga amaze yishwe.

 

I. Leta yanduranya ku berekana ingeso yayo y’ibeshyeshyamibare rivanze no kwivuguruza:

Imibare itangazwa na Leta y’u Rwanda ku bukungu bw’igihugu ijya ijorwa kandi ikanengwa. Ibyo bikorwa n’abantu ku giti cyabo cyangwa ibigo byamamaye mu busesenguzi. Iryo jora rikunze kandi kurakaza iyo Leta, akenshi igasubizanya umujinya.

Mu ngero nyinshi twatanga, reka turebe impaka zigeze kuvuka hagati ya Leta y’u Rwanda na Institut Mo Ibrahim, nyuma y’uko icyo kigo gitangaje raporo yacyo yari iturutse ku bushakashatsi cyakoreye mu Rwanda mu ntangiriro z’umwaka wa 2009.

Leta y’u Rwanda yihutiye kwamagana iyo Institut Mo Ibrahim, iyiziza ko imibare ikomoka ku bushakashatsi bwayo ivuguruza iyayo. Ibyo ubisanga mu nyandiko ikinyamakuru The New Times, umuntu yavuga ko ari icya Leta, cyasohoye tariki ya 13 Ukwakira 2009 ; inyandiko yiswe “Mo Ibrahim Index Misleading, the Rwandan Government Claims”. Nsemuye, iyo nyandiko iragira iti : «Leta y’u Rwanda iremeza ko ibipimo by’imibare bya Mo Ibrahim bibeshya».

Mu bintu byinshi byashenguye Leta y’U Rwanda rero, hari aho igira iti : « mu bintu tutumvikanaho na busa, hariho ikinyuranyo giteye inkeke hagati y’igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ubukungu ry’umwaka kuri buri Munyarwanda [annual GDP per capita growth], aho icyegeranyo cy’ubuyobozi bwiza muri Afrika [cya Mo Ibrahim] giha u Rwanda 2,74 kw’ijana, mu gihe ikigo cya Leta yacu gitanga umubare wa 14,6 kw’ijana, byerekana ikinyuranyo gikabakaba 12 kw’ijana. »

1.Ku bipimo by’ubukungu, abategetsi bakunze kuvuguruzanya no kwivuguruza.

Biragenda birushaho kugaragara ko imibare ififitse n’iterabwoba bitagihagije mu kuzinzika ukuri. Kuko kwamagana ikinyoma bisigaye bituruka n’aho Leta itakekaga. Nyuma y’umwaka umwe gusa Leta yamaganye raporo ya Mo Ibrahim iyiziza ubusa, n’abanyamakuru bo mu Rwanda bakomye akaruru. Ibyo byabarwa na Madame Diane Karusisi, umuyobozi w’agateganyo w’Ikigo cya Leta gishinzwe ibarurishamibare ; ikigo cyiswe mu cyongereza “National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda”[NISR], cyangwa « Institut National de la Statistique du Rwanda [INSR] mu gifaransa.

Kuwa kabiri, tariki ya 12/10/2010, uwo mutegetsi yagiranye rero ingorane n’abanyamakuru, nk’uko tubitangarizwa n’ikinyamakuru Rwanda News Agency [RNA], na cyo kibogamiye kuri Leta. Mu nyandiko cyise « Individual incomes increase 4% - new figures show », kiragira kiti :

“Mu kiganiro mbwirwaruhame cyo kuwa Kabiri, Diane Karusisi, umuyobozi w’agateganyo w’Ikigo gishinzwe ibarurishamibare, yagize ingorane mu kugerageza kumvisha abanyamakuru ko ibyo bipimo-mibare bihuye n’isura nyayo y’ubukungu bw’igihugu. Abanyamakuru bavuze ko ubukene bwigaragaza cyane mu byaro”.

N’ubwo rero itangazamakuru ryo mu Rwanda rihozwa ku nkeke, abo banyamakuru ntibihanganiye ikinyoma cy’ikigo cya Leta NISR/INSR, aho cyerekana ko umusaruro w’Umunyarwanda wiyongereyeho 4%, ukagera ku madolari ya Amerika 541 muri 2010.

Kwerekana ko imibare ari imifitirano, ntibinagoye. Reka turebe imibare NISR/INSR yari imaze gutangariza abo banyamakuru: “Kugeza mu mpera z’ukwezi kwa Kamena 2010, umusaruro wa buri Munyarwanda [GDP/PIB per capita] wari ugeze ku madolari ya Amerika [USD] 541, ugereranije na USD 520 muri 2009, hamwe n’agera kuri USD 380 mu mwaka wawubanjirije [2008]”.

Gusa rero, iyo usomye imibare y’icyo kigo NISR/INSR, ikubiye muri EDPRS 2008-2012, ubona ko GDP/PIB per capita muri 2007 yari USD 272.

Nta kuntu rwose umusaruro w’Umunyarwanda wari USD 272 muri 2007 waba warikubye hafi kabiri ngo uhinduke USD 541 muri 2010. Kwikuba kabiri mu myaka 4, bisaba ko umutungo w’Umunyarwanda waba waragiye wiyongera ku rwego rurenze 20 kw’ijana buri mwaka. Abanyamakuru bashoboraga no kubaza Diane Karusisi ibitangaza Leta yakoze, kugira ngo Umunyarwanda azimize, ave kuri USD 272 muri 2007 yikubite kuri USD 380 mu mwaka wakurikiyeho wa 2008. Uretse no kubeshya rero, abategetsi bo mu Rwanda barivuguruza, bakanavuguruzanya, kandi bose bitwaje imibare y’ikigo rukumbi cy’ibarurishamibare NISR/INSR.

Nyuma y’amezi abiri gusa Diane Karusisi abwiye abanyamakuru ko GDP/PIB per capita y’Umunyarwanda ari USD 541 muri 2010, minisitiri John Rwangombwa, ushinzwe Imari n’Ubukungu we yabatangarije ko “mu myaka isaga cumi n’itandatu ishize hubatswe ubukungu butajegajega […] [ko] ikigereranyo cy’amafaranga yinjizwa na buri munyarwanda ku mwaka kigeze ku madolari 360” (Izuba, 19/12/2010). Amezi hafi abiri yicumye, tariki ya 8/3/2011, icyo kinyamakuru cyegamiye kuri Leta cyanditse amagambo y’uwo muminisitiri, agira ati: “Kugera muri 2010 umuturage wo mu Rwanda yinjizaga amadorali 560 ku mwaka.

Mbere yaho kandi, kw’itariki ya 13 Nyakanga 2010, mu nyandiko ikinyamakuru Izuba cyise “Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kwiyongera “ Rwangombwa yari yagize ati: “umusaruro wa buri muturage [wavuye] ku madolari 200 mbere ya 1994 ubu ukaba ugeze ku madolari 520 muri 2010”.

Uretse rero ko bigaragara ko Umunyarwanda atavuye kuri USD 272 muri 2007 ngo asimbukire kuri USD 380 muri 2008, imibare ntanzeho urugero, ku mwaka umwe gusa wa 2010, irerekana isura nyayo y’ibeshyeshyamibare riranga Leta y’u Rwanda. Kuri uwo mwaka, Umunyarwanda arahabwa USD 541 na Diane Karusisi wa NISR/INSR ; naho minisitiri Rwangombwa akamuha USD 520, USD 360, USD 560; iyo mibare yose itatu, kuri uwo mwaka wa 2010, akaba na we ayikura muri NISR/INSR.

2.Ikigo cya Leta cy’ibarurishamibare NISR/INSR cyahanzwe muri 2005, hagamijwe ibeshyeshyamibare:

 

Kuba ikigo cy’ibarurishamibare NISR/INSR cyarahindutse ikigo cy’ibeshyeshyamibare, ni ubushake bwa Leta bwo guhuma amaso amahanga, ikoresheje intwaro y’amajyambere. Iyo Leta isa n’iyemeza ko amahanga n’Abanyarwanda bakwiye kwihanganira ihonyora ry’uburenganzira bwa muntu, kubera ko ngo ihora itsinda ibitego mu rwego rw’ubukungu.

Ubwisanzure mw’ibarurishamibare, Leta yabunize muri 2005, ibugenza nk’uko yagize amashyaka, amashyirahamwe anyuranye n’itangazamakuru. Dore uko Louis Munyakazi, umukuru wa mbere wa NISR/INSR, atangaza ko hagiyeho ikigo kimwe rukumbi, ko ibindi bigomba guceceka:

“Itangaza ry’imibare ya Leta y’u Rwanda, kuva ubungubu rizajya rikorwa na Institut National Rwandais des Statistiques (INRS) yonyine, rikaba rero ribujijwe izindi nzego za Leta, za ONG, cyangwa ibindi bigo by’ubushakashatsi […] INRS, imaze ukwezi kumwe gusa ishinzwe, yagombye kugira mu mwihariko wayo akazi kose karebana n’ibipimo-mibare byose by’igihugu […] Ntidushaka kuguma guhatirwa ibisabwa n’aba consultants mpuzamahanga badutegeka gutangaza imibare idahwitse […] Buri gihe, uRwanda rwagiye rubamo uruhuri rw’Amashyirahamwe Atabogamiye kuri Leta (ONG) atangaza imibare itari nyakuri, ivuguruza isura nyakuri y’Igihugu.” (PANA , Kigali - 20/10/2005, Louis Munyakazi, le directeur général de l'INRS).

Birumvikana rero ko, kuva icyo gihe, Leta itongeye kwihanganira umuntu cyangwa ikigo kijora imibare y’Ikigo cyayo gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare. Ikaba ari yo mpamvu yarakariye ibigo nka Mo Ibrahim.

II.Ubukungu butazamutse bihagije kandi budasaranganijwe, n’ubwo Leta yiyuha akuya irata inyubako n’isuku bya Kigali, mu rwego rwo guhisha ibibazo byinshi by’ingutu.

Reka nkomeze ijambo ryanjye mvuga mu magambo ahinnye ku bintu bimwe bijyanye n’iyo GDP/PIB per capita : isaranganyamusaruro mu Banyarwanda, uko ubukungu bwifashe mu mujyi wa Kigali, aho u Rwanda rugeze mu guharanira kwihaza mu bukungu, intera ruriho mu nzira yo kurwanya ubukene, imfashanyo n’imyenda.

1.Isaranganyamusaruro:

GDP/PIB, umusaruro w’igihugu, ukunze kubarirwa ku mwaka, ni igipimo nyamukuru cy’ubukungu. Umusaruro wa buri muturage (GDP/PIB per capita), ubarwa uwo musaruro ugabanijwe n’umubare w’abaturage bose. GDP/PIB ni impuzandengo rero, bisobanura ko itagaragaza niba umutungo usaranganyijwe neza mu baturage.

“Coefficient de Gini” ni igipimo gikunze gukoreshwa mu kugenzura isaranganyamutungo. Kibara ubusumbane. Icyo gipimo gikora nka “écart-type”. Kiri hagati ya zeru na rimwe. Nk’ibihugu by’intangarugero, usanga biri hafi ya za 0.25, naho ibyifashe nabi bikarenga za 0.40. Igihugu gifite “coefficient de Gini” ingana na 0.00, byaba bisobanura ko abaturage bacyo bose bafite umutungo ungana ; naho igifite ingana na 1, byaba bivuze ko umutungo wose w’Igihugu uri mu maboko y’umuntu umwe gusa. Icyo gipimo gishobora no kuvugwa hakoreshejwe ijanisha: 0%, 100% (ariyo 1), 25%, 40%, etc.

U Rwanda rwagize isaranganyamutungo ry’intangarugero muri za 1985, aho “coefficient de Gini” yarwo yari 0.25 (25%). Guhera mu myaka ya za 2000, icyo gipimo cyavuye kuri 0.45 (45%) kigera kuri 0.51(51%) muri 2006. Guhera icyo gihe, Leta isigaye isa n’iyirinda no kukibara, kandi itayobewe amakuba igihugu nk’u Rwanda gishobora kugwamo kubera ubusumbane, kandi butanashingiye ku bushobozi bw’umuturage. Mu Cyerekezo cya 2020, Leta yari yarihaye intego kuri icyo gipimo cy’ubusumbane. Kw’ipaji y’icyo cyerekezo, usoma ibi: “Ubusumbane ku mutungo (Igipimo cya Gini -%- : 0.454 muri 2000 ; 0.400 muri 2010 ; 0.350 muri 2020)”.

Muri iki gihe igipimo cy’ubusumbane cyagombye kuba kigeze muri 40%, nk’uko byari intego muri 2010, ubu rero nta n’ukibara. Byahagarariye kuri 51% muri 2006, ni ukuvuga umubare mubi kurusha uwo muri 2000 (45%). Ubu, uwakibara atabeshye, ashobora no gusanga kirenze 60%, nk’icya Afrika y’Epfo ivuye muri politiki y’irondakoko na gashakabuhake (apartheid). Muri EDPRS 2008-2012, ku rupapuro rwa 15, Leta y’u Rwanda yiyemerera ko igipimo cy’ubusumbane cyari kimeze nabi muri 2000 (aha naho irivuguruza, itanga umubare wa 47%, mu gihe muri Vision 2020 handitse 45.4 %). Yongeraho ko mu gace ka East African Community, igihugu cyazonzwe n’ubusumbane kurusha u Rwanda rwa nyuma ya 1994 ari Kenya yonyine.

2.Abajyanama ba Leta bazi ububi bw’ubusumbane.

Nka raporo yo muri za 2004 ya IRDP nigeze gusoma, hari aho ivuga ko ubusumbane ari impamvu nyamukuru yatumye haba revolisiyo ya 1959. Ubusumbane burarushaho kwiyongera hagati y’imijyi n’ibyaro ; hari kandi n’ubusumbane mu bari mu mijyi n’abari mu byaro, hagati yabo. Ibyo, umuntu ashobora kubisoma ku buryo burambuye muri raporo ya PNUD yo muri 2007, raporo yiswe “ Turning Vision 2020 onto Reality - From Recovery to Sustainable Human Development”, ikaba yarakozwe na PNUD, ifatanije na Leta. Kimwe na Raporo ya Institut Mo Ibrahim, iyo raporo ya PNUD yakirijwe umujinya na Kagame, ategeka minisitiri James Musoni kuyamagana, kandi yari yayisinye. Yazize gushyira ahagaragara ubusumbane n’ubushake bucye mu kurwanya ubukene bw’abaturage.

Ubusumbane bujyanye n’ivangura, byanahagurukije abepisikopi bo muri Nijeriya, baza i Kigali, aho bavugiye amagambo akomeye, tariki ya 18/12/2008. Urugero: “Itsinda risa n’iryihariye igisirikare, politiki, n’ubukungu, rikaba ritihanganira ijorwa cyangwa umuhigo uwo ari wo wose ku butegetsi bwaryo, ntabwo rishobora kwemerwa”. Na nyuma y’ibyo, kuzamuka kw’ubusumbane birabonwa na benshi, harimo n’inkoramutima z’ingoma ya Kagame.

 

Imivumo n’ubusebanyi bya Leta y’u Rwanda rero, hari ubushishozi bwo mu muco nyarwanda byirengagiza. Nk’ibikubiye mu mugani ugira uti : « uvuze ko nyiri urugo yapfuye, si we uba yamwishe ». Leta y’u Rwanda yibagirwa kandi ko n’ukuri guca mu ziko ntigushye. Uko kuri kubabaje kwigaragariza mu bukene bugenda bwiyongera mu Banyarwanda, cyane cyane abo mu cyaro bagize hafi 90 kw’ijana by’abaturage bose. Kandi rero, n’ubwo Leta yashyizeho ikigo kimwe rukumbi ngo kigomba kwiharira ibarurishamibare n’itangazwa ry’ibipimo by’ubukungu n’imiberho myiza y’abaturage, amajwi araturuka hirya no hino akamagana ko n’ubwo Leta yabonye imfashanyo nyinshi, igasonerwa n’imyenda, ubukene butagabanutse.

Mu nyandiko z’impuruza, umuntu yavuga nk’iy’Umuryango w’Abibumbye, inyandiko yasohotse muri RNA, tariki ya 4/00/2010, inyandiko yiswe: “Over 75% Rwandans spend less than 730 Francs per day – UN”. Nsemure : “Umubare urenze 75% w’Abanyarwanda babeshejweho n’amafaranga ari munsi ya 730 ku munsi, nk’uko byabonywe n’inyigo ya ONU”.

Ntawakwibagirwa n’inyandiko za UNICEF zihamya ko mu Rwanda, abana barenga 50 kw’ijana barangwa n’indwara ziturutse ku ndyo mbi no kugwingira, ibyo bikaba byabaviramo ubumuga buhoraho, butazatuma bagira icyo bimarira mu buzima. Ibyo byose ni ingaruka z’ubukene n’isaranganyamutungo ribi. Binyuranije n’imvugo ya Leta yamamaza ko u Rwanda rugana inzira ya Singapour, maze abategetsi bo bakarushanwa kwigwizaho ibya mirenge.

3.Muri 2006 u Rwanda rwahanaguriwe hafi imyenda yose y’amahanga yari igeze ku madolari ya Amerika hafi miliyari 1 na miliyoni 600

Ubukire buratwa, umuntu yakwibaza aho bushingiye, mu gihe abarimu n’abanyeshuri bicwa n’inzara. Binyuranije n’intego y’Icyerekezo cya 2020 ivuga ko u Rwanda ruzaba igihugu gishingiye ku bumenyi. Amahanga yarunze imfashanyo ku uRwanda, ariko zikaribwa n’agatsiko. Uretse kandi n’imfashanyo, u Rwanda rwahanaguriwe hafi imyenda yose y’amahanga muri 2006, imyenda yari igeze ku madolari ya Amerika hafi miliyari 1 na miliyoni 600. Ibyo byose byagombaga kurufasha kuzamuka, no kudakenera imyenda, nk’uko Icyerekezo 2020 cyateganyaga kubigeraho muri za 2005-2006.

Kugira ngo intego yo kwihaza igerweho, hari ibintu bibiri by’ingenzi byagombaga kugerwaho : kugira ingengo y’imari itarimo icyuho gikabije, no kohereza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa bituma u Rwanda rutumiza ibyo rukeneye. Ingengo y’imari ikomeje kugaragaza icyuho gikomeye, kandi u Rwanda rukomeje guca agahigo mu cyuho cya “balance commerciale” (ibitumizwa mu mahanga biruta ibihoherezwa, ikinyuranyo kikaba kirenga miliyari 1 y’amadolari ya Amerika). Mu rwego rwo kuziba icyuho cy’ingengo y’imari, Leta igiye kumara ibigo byayo, ibigurisha. Naho mu rwego rwo kubasha guhaha hanze, ikomeje kwirundaho imyenda, ku buryo, kuva muri 2006 iyihanagurirwa, ubu yongeye gukura, ikaba igeze hafi ya USD miliyoni 800 (iyo hanze), mu gihe iy’imbere irenze USD miliyoni 300.

Uretse imfashanyo u Rwanda rurushaho gukenera uko umwaka uje, n’imyenda rukomeje kongera kwirundaho, ibibazo by’ubukene n’ubusumbane bitangiye kwigaragaza no muri Kigali. Ibyo bikaba biboneka mu ngengo y’imari y’uwo murwa mukuru yo mu mwaka 2011/2012, aho iteganya ko umutungo wawo bwite uzaba hafi 27%, imfashanyo y’amahanga ikagera kuri 45%, naho Leta ikawugoboka kuri 20% (kandi nayo irafashwa), andi mafaranga asigaye akava mu nguzanyo.

Ubundi, ahari ubukungu, haba n’umusaruro w’imisoro, cyane cyane ko Leta ivuga ko Rwanda Revenue Authority yayo ari ingenzi, ishema ry’igihugu. 27% gusa nk’amafaranga bwite y’Umurwa mukuru mu ngengo y’imari yawo, ibyo byerekana ko nta kigenda no muri uwo murwa mukuru Leta y’u Rwanda yashoyemo iby’Abanyarwanda hafi byose.

 

Umwanzuro

Kuvuga ko rero ko u Rwanda rugana inzira ya Singapour ni ukwirengagiza cyangwa kubeshya ku bushake. Ikirunga gishobora ahubwo guturika vuba. Nk’uko tubibonye, no muri Kigali, “aho kwirukana ubukene, Leta yirukanye abakene”. Ibyo byavuzwe kandi na Koleta Braeckman, umwe mu bakunzi b’ingoma ya Kagame.

 

Joseph Ngarambe